THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.7%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.8%176 races · latest settled day: #1 2/7, top-3 6/7forensic read: #1 29.1% · top-3 61.2% (103)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (100% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (51% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 51% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, SHIMMERING SANDS leads on 83, 4pts clear of MWAFAQ (IRE) — backed since the morning. The case against the top pick: habitually slow from the stalls and rated well above the mark it last won from. The shape danger is KITSUNE POWER (IRE) — just behind the quickest early pair — presses, without over-committing — and finds plenty late, sharp from the stalls. The market is line-ball — it just prefers MWAFAQ (IRE) at 28% to our top pick.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
SHIMMERING SANDS
OR 75 · Joanna Mason / Michael & David Easterby
MARKET backed 4.4 → 3.7 · the market rates it a 27% chance
83.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (83.0)Proven over the trip (16 tries, beats market expectation at 1.42)Historically underestimated by the market
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
MWAFAQ (IRE)
OR 71 · Ethan Tindall / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET 3.6 · the market rates it a 28% chance
79.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (79.0)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 10 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.47x market expectation)
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
ENAMORUS (IRE)
OR 71 · Cieren Fallon / Hugo Palmer
MARKET drifting 6.4 → 7.2 · the market rates it a 14% chance
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−Rated #3 in this field (77.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.84x market expectation)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1SHIMMERING SANDSnet +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip − habitually slow away, 5lb+ above last winning mark
2KITSUNE POWER (IRE)net +7race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip
3ZIATAnet +6drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), quickest early type, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
SHIMMERING SANDS carries habitually slow from the stalls and rated well above the mark it last won from. KITSUNE POWER (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge SHIMMERING SANDS lacks: sharp from the stalls.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
ZIATA FIGURE #4
Gemma Tutty's runners coming back after 15 to 45 days win 12.3% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
contested early pace likely (3 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
34 similar races at BEVERLEY, 9.4-10.4f, all-aged handicaps, Class 4-6, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (100% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (51% from the first three favourites). 14% won last time out, 34% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
31% 6yo+
31% 5yo
23% 4yo
Last ran
60% 15-45d
40% within 14d
Market
49% 4th+ in the market
29% favourite
11% 3rd favourite
LTO form
51% unplaced last time
34% placed last time
14% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5
12345
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: SHIMMERING SANDS is 0/3 on softer ground · MWAFAQ (IRE) is 1/3 on softer ground · ENAMORUS (IRE) is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
SHIMMERING SANDSHELD-UP48.5%104.0a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it
MWAFAQ (IRE)PROMINENT49.2%100.9a match for the quickest early, without over-committing — and holds on late
ENAMORUS (IRE)MID49.6%99.5one-paced late — 5th of 5 on late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — needs them to stop in front
KITSUNE POWER (IRE)PROMINENT48.6%106.2just behind the quickest early pair — presses, without over-committing — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls
ZIATAPROMINENT48.9%100.6the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — and holds on late · sharp from the stalls
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
ZIATAPROMINENTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
MWAFAQ (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.5 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.13s off the field’s best
KITSUNE POWER (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest
nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Michael & David Easterby · 1234 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.9 on the exchange
Signature angle: keeping the same jockey
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days46/5168.9%0.8417/14411.8%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=7 ✦17/15910.7%0.684/508.0%0.7
In Class 4-5 company ✦40/5287.6%0.8210/1546.5%0.74
At Beverley10/8112.3%1.072/258.0%0.76
Too few runners to read reliably
Over 9-10f trips (small sample)13/11910.9%0.932/1811.1%0.96
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 83 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand
The rider
Joanna Mason · last 14 days: 5/34· at Beverley: A/E 1.19 (n137)· with this yard: A/E 0.94 (n605)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
+0.27 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 37.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.29s
Slow away in 3 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
104.0%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 5
7.28 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
29 Jun 26Pontefract10fGood1st—36.6 +0.0499.6+0.39—
8 Jun 26Pontefract10fGood1stTrue36.5 +0.25104.0+0.45
26 Nov 25Newcastle10fSlow4thTrue37.3 -0.03105.0-0.05
30 Oct 25Southwell8fStd3rdTrue38.7 +0.22103.0+0.05
4 Oct 25Newcastle10fSlow5thTrue38.6 +1.09105.4+0.63
16 Aug 25Doncaster10fFirm4thSlow early40.1 +0.02106.8—
Timed runs 2025-08-16 to 2026-06-29. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs MWAFAQ (IRE) (read through TEES GEORGE, SOPHIESTICATE, WOODLEIGH) ≈ +1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KITSUNE POWER (IRE) (read through STAR START, ARRANMORE, DAWN OF LIBERATION, SOPHIESTICATE) ≈ -1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
8lb above his last winning mark (75 today vs 67)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (83.0)Improving fast — last run rated 83, 10pts above his recent average of 72.7Proven over the trip (16 tries, beats market expectation at 1.42)Lost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market
LTO comment
“waited with, headway home turn, going well when led over 1f out, went clear quickly”
#2MWAFAQ (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 3 · OR 71 · Ethan Tindall / Richard & Peter Fahey
MARKET 3.6 · the market rates it a 28% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
79.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 4pts off the top, runs the dominant winning style here; a match for the quickest early, without over-committing — and holds on late.
FormLab Figure
79.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 79
Official mark (OR)
71 · last won off 67
Record at today's distance
untried at this distance
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.2s) · best on the clock in its race Usually races front-runner
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 100.94% (holds late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Richard & Peter Fahey · 380 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Above their last winning mark—18/12314.6%1.53
At Beverley—3/1915.8%1.36
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
In fields of <=7—8/819.9%0.69
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 79 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand
The rider
Ethan Tindall · last 14 days: 1/15· at Beverley: A/E 1.47 (n14)· with this yard: A/E 0.47 (n45)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 5
-0.02 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 5
100.9%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 5
7.63 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-20 to 2026-07-03. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs SHIMMERING SANDS (read through TEES GEORGE, SOPHIESTICATE, WOODLEIGH) ≈ -1.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs KITSUNE POWER (IRE) (read through SUNNY ORANGE, SOPHIESTICATE, ROYAL BLAZE) ≈ +0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (71 today vs 67)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #2 in this field (79.0)Stable in form this week — 2 wins from 10 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.47x market expectation)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“led, headed when bumped inside final 1f, led again final ½f, all out”
#3ENAMORUS (IRE)MID
DRAW 5 · OR 71 · Cieren Fallon / Hugo Palmer
MARKET drifting 6.4 → 7.2 · the market rates it a 14% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−
77.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 6pts off the top, fit and race-ready; the clock has it fading late.
FormLab Figure
77.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 77
Official mark (OR)
71 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
16
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Hugo Palmer · 1168 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: jockey_named Oisin Murphy, without a recent yard winner, in fields of 8-11
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)53/38413.8%1.23/486.2%0.55
Over 9-10f trips12/8913.5%1.184/458.9%0.73
Coming back after 15 to 45 days63/47713.2%1.0512/1239.8%0.74
Too few runners to read reliably
At Beverley (small sample)0/50.0%0.00/60.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 76 is below the ~79.0 the race demands
The rider
Cieren Fallon · last 14 days: 5/35· at Beverley: A/E 1.84 (n29)· with this yard: A/E 0.48 (n34)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5
-0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 5
+0.21s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 5
99.5%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 5
7.17 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-07-10 to 2026-07-04. · 4 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (77.0)Improving fast — last run rated 77, 11pts above his recent average of 65.7Only 1 run at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.84x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“off pace, shaken up soon after halfway, still off pace 1f out, finished well, nearest finish”
#4ZIATAPROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 67 · Jack Callan / Gemma Tutty
MARKET drifting 7.4 → 10 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 5+ / 1−
71.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 12pts off the top, dropping in class; the quickest of today's early types, without over-committing — and holds on late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
71.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 71
Official mark (OR)
67 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
33
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.5s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races front-runner (cooked late)
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 100.57% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Gemma Tutty · 507 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 9-10f trips4/3710.8%1.176/1735.3%2.66
In fields of <=711/6516.9%1.133/2114.3%1.53
In Class 4-5 company22/2289.6%0.99/7212.5%1.44
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦20/2029.9%1.038/6512.3%1.43
At this time of year (Q3)14/13510.4%0.981/137.7%1.32
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf23/21310.8%1.056/847.1%0.8
Too few runners to read reliably
At Beverley (small sample)2/1811.1%0.980/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 71 is below the ~79.0 the race demands
The rider
Jack Callan · last 14 days: 3/29· at Beverley: A/E 0 (n1)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 35.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
+0.04s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 5
100.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 5
7.18 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
17 Jun 26Ffos Las10fSoft3rdFast early35.6 -0.07101.9-0.08
19 May 26Nottingham8fGd/Sft5thTrue37.6 +0.0399.5+0.00
20 Apr 26Newcastle8fStd2ndTrue39.2 -0.1399.8+0.00
15 Oct 25Nottingham8fGd/Sft3rdTrue37.9 +0.4598.6-0.01
Timed runs 2025-09-26 to 2026-06-17. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Drops in class todayOnly 1 run at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, led over 3f out, headed when hung right over 1f out, no extra final 1f”
#5KITSUNE POWER (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 4 · OR 61 · David Allan / Tim Easterby
MARKET 4.6 · the market rates it a 22% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 2+ / 0−
65.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 18pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; just behind the quickest early pair — presses, without over-committing — and finds plenty late, sharp from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
65.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 95
Official mark (OR)
61 · last won off 57
Record at today's distance
1 win from 9 tries · beats market expectation (1.65)
Days since last run
6
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.9s · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Prominent · finishing speed 106.17% (strong late)
Headgear
Cheekpieces · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.83)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 19 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tim Easterby · 2909 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Signature angle: stepping up in class, at 16+ odds, with their 4yo+s, off a TFR-RISING figure trend, in fields of 12-15
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At Beverley15/1758.6%0.8611/5320.8%1.96
Above their last winning mark51/6747.6%0.6627/20613.1%1.16
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 95 at/around today's trip, clears the ~79.0 demand
The rider
David Allan · last 14 days: 6/45· at Beverley: A/E 0.82 (n185)· with this yard: A/E 0.82 (n1578)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 5
-0.01 mph
About the level of its fields · 38.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 5
+0.00s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 3 of 5
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
106.2%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 5
6.86 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.26slow2f+0.45very slow3f+0.46very slow4f+0.53very slow5f+0.47slow6f+0.30slow7f+0.25par1m+0.11very fast1m 1fledvery fast1m 2fledvery fast
Timed runs 2026-04-23 to 2026-07-14. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs SHIMMERING SANDS (read through STAR START, ARRANMORE, DAWN OF LIBERATION, SOPHIESTICATE) ≈ +1.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs MWAFAQ (IRE) (read through SUNNY ORANGE, SOPHIESTICATE, ROYAL BLAZE) ≈ -0.7L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (61 today vs 57)Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayProven over the trip (9 tries, beats market expectation at 1.65)Race-fit — ran 6 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 4 here)Runs Prominent — the dominant winning style at this course & distance, and his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“prominent, shaken up over 2f out, led approaching final 1f, kept on”